From the Archives: The Estimate Video

scene description: [The video begins by showing a screen filled with four equal-sized images arranged in a square. The top left reveals a middle-aged woman of average height, neither stocky nor thin, with her brown hair pulled behind her head. She wears a purple tunic and pant set, matched in their design. A chyron on the screen identifies her as Alexandra Hanlon (she/her).

The image to the right of the first shows an overhead view of the room, a group of three people standing in front of Alexandra as one more walks toward them. Beyond the four is a circle of eight chairs; except for the five people, the room is empty.

The images on the bottom expose the four individuals in front of Alexandra. The left image displays a slim, tall, dark-skinned woman along with a chyron identification of Mika Phillips, she/her, standing next to a taller, lighter-skinned man with broad shoulders and textured, dark brown hair, worn in thin braids that cascade down his neck. He is identified as Richard Forester, he/him.

The final image on the right shows Alexandra standing across from the last two people. On one side, an older woman is holding a mobile interface. Her dark hair is arranged in a high bun at the crown of her head, tapering into a tail clasped tightly at regular intervals with silver rings. She is identified as Effie Tabir, she/her. Walking to stand next to her is a stocky, pale-skinned man of roughly the same age, whose bald head is surrounded by short gray hair. He is identified as Gerold Philby, he/him.]

Effie Tabir:

Alexandra, I'm curious. Why did you ask about a pandemic plan?

Alexandra Hanlon:

In our meeting earlier, Tessa mentioned how the habitats are about halfway to the optimal starting population to survive a generational lockdown. I began wondering how a pandemic would affect recruitment and relocation, especially if the world situation continues to escalate.

action happening: [Alexandra pauses, and the room is silent]

Alexandra Hanlon:

Actually, there's something more to it than my simply wondering.

scene description: [The top left image zooms in on Alexandra's face as she appears to look directly into the viewer.]

Effie, when I met you and Gerold the first time, you mentioned that one of the reasons I qualified for this job was my empathy, my ability to accurately assess the people around me, and my excellent instincts. While I'm not empathetic in the sense of actually feeling the same emotions as another person, I am highly empathic, which means I'm aware of the feelings of those around me. I also possess a strong intuitive sense. They're separate abilities, but sometimes they work together in a way I can't really put into words. When it happens, I end up with realizations for which I have no other explanation. In this case, I'm not sure whether "feelings" or "experiences" is the better term, so forgive me if I use both interchangeably. I experienced something that caused me to ask about the pandemic. What I felt seemed to reflect something terrible happening everywhere. It was different from the feelings I tend to associate with wars, and the only other highly improbable events coming to mind were an alien invasion or a pandemic. I focused on what we could control and wondered how to keep everyone down here safe and continue to meet population goals if something like a pandemic becomes part of our reality.

action happening: [Gerold Philby's reaction is captured in one of the bottom images. Initially startled, he quickly assumes a look of contempt. The other three stand silently and respectfully.]

Gerold Philby:

action happening: [speaking in a scornful tone]

So you're telling us you can see into the future?

scene description: [The bottom right view shows Alexandra turning her attention to Gerold; she is calm and collected as she answers.]

Alexandra Hanlon:

I'm not a seer or a prognosticator, and I can't tell you exactly what will happen in the future.

action happening: [She pauses, and the room is still.]

But maybe I can give us a general idea of when, even if we don't know the actual what.

scene description: [The overhead view shows Alexandra Hanlon taking a few steps back as the bottom images adjust to keep everyone in range.]

action happening: [Alexandra faces the group, standing easily, with her arms loose and hands open at her sides, her palms facing the people standing opposite her. She closes her eyes and stands silently, her chest rising and falling as she takes deep breaths. Her eyes open, and her face relaxes; her mouth is slightly parted. Everyone stands still, eyes focused on her, waiting.]

Alexandra Hanlon:

2017

[She pauses, and everyone waits.]

2018

[She counts slowly, pausing significantly between each year. Gerold Philby seems about to speak but is silenced by a look from Effie Tabir.]

2019

[Her mouth closes as her lips tighten and her fingers move toward her palms. The room is silent except for the sound of Alexandra's breath.]

2020

[Her hands tighten into fists, her breathing is audible, and her face tightens as the muscles in her neck begin to jump. Richard Forester seems to stiffen slightly but otherwise makes no move.]

2021

[Her legs and arms begin to tremble and shake; her fists are now tightly clenched, and her elbows bend as her arms rise toward her shoulders. Her breathing is labored and heavy. The images show the others in the room shifting slightly, moving in discomfort.]

2022

[Alexandra doubles over, and her entire body trembles visibly. Mika Phillips tenses; Effie looks concerned.]

2023

[She struggles to rise, her nails digging into the palms of her hands.]

2024

action happening: [Alexandra continues to rise and almost manages to stand completely upright. Suddenly screaming in anguish, she begins vomiting as she collapses onto the floor. Richard rushes to her, pulling her onto a clean section before allowing her to rest on the floor. He positions her so that she lies on her side, with her leg straight under her and the other leg bent, allowing her hips to be rotated and her knee to support the rest. He makes sure her lower arm is set straight from her shoulder and curves her other arm over it, with her hand close to her cheek and her head tilted back.] (1)

scene description>[:[The overhead image captures Mika and Gerold leaving the room, then entering it again with towels and water as Alexandra begins to regain consciousness.]

Richard Forester:

[in evident relief]

She's coming around.

action happening: [Alexandra begins to sit up with Richard's help. She takes the offered glass of water from Gerold and sips it slowly. She hands the empty glass back to Gerold and accepts a towel from Mika after looking down at her vomit-riddled clothing. She carefully wipes her face and hands with the towel, then, still holding it, looks up at the four standing over her, all with looks of concern on their faces.]

Effie Tabir:

Alexandra, are you all right?

Mika Phillips:

How could she be all right? If Richard hadn't gotten there in time, she would have cracked her head on the floor! Alex, can you stand? I'm going to call Medical.

action happening: [Alexandra, with Richard's assistance, slowly rises and then stands on her own.]

Alexandra Hanlon:

I'm fine, Mika, just a bit shaky, and all I really want is to go home and shower. I don't need to go to Medical, and if anything develops later, Kevin is a member of our floor's medical triage; he'll take care of me.

scene description: [The top left image zooms in until only Alexandra's flushed and serious face shows, hiding her bedraggled figure.]

But before anything else, I need to share what I felt. From what I can tell, 2020 and 2021 reflected the same experiences I had earlier when I asked how a pandemic might affect us. While the experience could begin in late 2019, I'm certain it will be there in early 2020.

[Alexandra's head and shoulders shudder as she sighs]

As I was counting, I felt a push urging me to go further, so I continued. As I spoke of 2022, those earlier experiences persisted but were muted by an overlay of feelings I associate with war. Everything continued throughout 2023 and into the last year, 2024, and the feelings corresponding to war kept escalating.

[She trembles again and takes a moment to breathe.]

I can't describe what happened to me in that moment other than I experienced the worst pain in my entire life. I felt as if I was being turned inside out and then torn into shreds. It's like nothing I've ever gone through, and I hope never to feel anything like it ever again.

[Alexandra pauses and visibly shudders.]

I'm not saying anything will happen. As I said earlier, I can't predict the future; no one can. I can only tell you what I experienced and my interpretations, vague as they are. Having said that, if I were inclined to bet on timing and outcomes, which I am not, I'd put money on the possibility of something happening sometime around the last quarter of 2024. I'm sorry, Effie and Richard, I don't think I'm up for another meeting this afternoon.

Richard Forester:

It's okay, Alex. We can reschedule. Hopefully, you'll feel well enough to meet tomorrow.

Alexandra Hanlon:

[nodding]

Thank you for understanding; yes, tomorrow will be fine.

Mika Phillips:

At least let us walk you back to your house, Alex, please?

Gerold Philby:

I'll be pleased to help escort you home as well, Alex.

scene description: [Alexandra nods and leaves the room, supported on either side by Gerold and Mika. The other images disappear, and the only remaining image is from Effie Tabir's mobile, which shows Richard taking up the entire screen.]

Richard Forester:

I’d better make some calls to reschedule the meeting. What time would be good for you tomorrow?

Effie Tabir:

I can do a morning meeting, say 10 am?

action happening: [Richard interacts with his interface and then looks up]

Richard Forester:

It’s locked in. Hey Effie? Was that real? It’s the craziest thing I've ever seen.

Effie Tabir:

Alex hasn’t struck me as a dramatic person, Richard, or even someone who thrives on attention, and I don’t see how this benefits her in any way if it were a sham. She's fully aware she's obligated to be truthful under the Charter, so why give such specific timing, especially when the first estimate is less than three years in the future?

Richard Forester:

Did you know she could do that?

Effie Tabir:

Of course not; who would ever think to ask about such a subject?.

scene description: [Video Ends]