In the Room Where it Happened: The Estimate

scene description: [A deep blue screen appears as the musical refrain of the Iron Maiden song "The Prophecy" plays in the background.] The title, "In the Room Where It Happened: The Estimate," appears in large white letters with the phrase, "a documentary by Mirali Lamoré," set below in a slightly smaller size. ₍₁₎

Mirali Lamoré appears on the screen, seated on a white cushioned chair, their short, dark hair tousled in waves to one side of their head. It was part of their characteristic look, along with their high-waisted, long-coated voluminous suit, shining in a pattern of thin brown stripes against a tan background. The wall behind them transitions from blue to blank white as the music fades and the view zooms in on their face.]

Mirali Lamoré:

I'm Mirali Lamoré, a journalist in North America Habitat East. Welcome to "In the Room Where It Happened," a documentary detailing the recollections of those who witnessed Alexandra Hanlon make her predictions.

For those unfamiliar, I am referring to an incident occurring on March 22, 2017, when Alexandra Hanlon experienced a convergence resulting in a prediction of timelines for two separate significant events that might occur on the surface.

There were four witnesses to this event, and we interviewed each of them. This documentary marks the first time video from the event will be aired publicly, and we will hear our witnesses share their viewpoints on what they saw, as well as their own experiences and reactions.

action happening: [Mirali shifts in their chair, and we can see the vertical striping on the sleeves, sweeping from their shoulder to the tight cuff at their wrist.]

Before we begin, you deserve an explanation for why this information hasn't come out sooner. The simple reason is that no one, including Alexandra Hanlon herself, could guarantee that her predictions would come true, and we could not determine how to report the facts separate from the prediction itself in a way that would avert and minimize a panic that could well be unjustified. Given the uncertainty, my team and I agreed to delay the release of this documentary.

We hope this documentary explains how much of the Estimate underlies many of our experiences over the last few years. Experiences such as new residential floors opening in every section and many more people coming down, which, in turn, offers more opportunities to share our creativity. Since the Estimate, we've learned more about each other in all the habitats and have shared our music, writing, art, and food, all while developing respect for cultures different from our own. Underlying everything, we know that we share more similarities than differences, and regardless of our reasons for moving into these habitats, we are all united by a common cause.

By now, it's evident to everyone, regardless of their location, that COVID-19 is a global, lethal pandemic. Before it began, we were able to increase our overall population to over two million, adding more than thirty-seven thousand new residents to each habitat. We were able to do so thanks to the efforts of the Foundation Board, Habitat Administrations, the Liaisons, and everyone in the habitats who stepped up when the call went out.

Using Alexandra's predictions as hard deadlines prepared us for the situation raging above. The Board assures us they will be able to continue recruiting in a manner that ensures the health and safety of everyone living in the habitats. Alexandra Hanlon herself will join me at the end of this documentary to discuss the steps and precautions being taken in our recruitment and quarantine processes.

scene description: [The wall behind Mirali displays an image of a large gathering. Mirali vanishes as the screen tightens in on rows of seated people facing a raised platform upon which a middle-aged woman stands. Her slightly wavy brown hair falls behind her shoulders, held away from her face by a thin black band etched with the Liaison emblem in gold and silver. Thin lines of gold, silver and black reveal dragonfly outlines upon the light blue shaded tunic over pants draped in the same style and design.]

Mirali Lamoré: [voice over]

The first time I heard anything about a timeline was when we covered the two-week liaison conference held in NAHE in the summer of 2017. During her keynote address, Alexandra spoke briefly about something she called the Estimate.

scene description: [The image transitions to a video showing Alexandra speaking to the audience, and the focus tightens onto her.]

Alexandra Hanlon:

I want to speak openly about what some are calling the Estimate. As for what happened, I will not guarantee the situation will unfold as I described or even lead to any specific outcome. I do not claim to be able to foretell the future. However, since its inception, the Foundation has always attempted to plan for the worst, and when confronted with a timeline, however tenuous, they took it seriously.

Collaborations and conversations between the habitats have been ongoing. Participants have included every Liaison Head and every General Manager, as well as the entire Foundation Board. Through those discussions, they unanimously agreed to use the timeline I indicated as deadlines to make sure each habitat has what it needs to support our targeted population for generations.

This conference is our chance to meet each other physically and build the relationships and connections we will need to rely on after we return to our own habitats. I hope each of us uses this conference as a springboard toward creating the frameworks we'll rely on within these time constraints to achieve what we must. While it feels as if we are in a race against time, remember we are working toward a worst-case scenario, one we hope will never come to pass. Beginning to plan now, however, means we will be better prepared for whatever comes next.

[The scene dissolves into the white wall, and again, Mirali Lamoré appears on the screen.]

Mirali Lamoré:

After the conference, my team went digging to find out what this Estimate was, and of course, we went straight to Alexandra Hanlon. Although she refused our interview request, she did provide access to a video of the incident in question. We will show clipped portions of the video in this documentary, and the entire video and transcript will soon be made available in systems archives.

I was able to interview everyone who was an eyewitness. Each serves as an official and is, therefore, oathbound under the Charter to be truthful in these interviews. Each was interviewed separately, and the full interviews will also be made available in systems to every adult in the habitats.

[The scene dissolves into a room set up for a face-to-face interview. Mirali, dark hair uncharacterisically slicked back, wearing a salmon and tan checked suit, is seated in a comfortable chair across from another empty chair. The image zooms in on Mirali's face as they speak.]

Mirali Lamoré:

My team and I decided that the best way to conduct these interviews was to ask each person the same questions, allowing for further exploration whenever necessary. I'll introduce a segment and follow with relevant parts of the interviews we conducted. Other questions may have been asked, and although some have been included in this documentary, each interview is available in its entirety in the archives.

And so we begin.

[The image widens to reveal Mirali is seated across from an elegant woman of Middle Eastern descent, wearing a long black and silver caftan, her hair caught up in a complicated braid pulled over her right shoulder. The chyron now displays: Introducing Effie Tabir (she/her) - Foundation Board Member.]

Mirali Lamoré: [voice over]

Effie Tabir, the residing Foundation Board member for NAHE, sat down for an interview with me on July 16, 2017.

ML:

Thank you for taking the time to sit down with me, Effie. It's been some time since we've spoken.

Effie Tabir (ET):

It's always a pleasure to be interviewed by you, Mirali.

scene description: [The wall fades to white and then reveals a similar scene as before, Mirali Lamoré now wearing a burnt orange suit dotted in beige and brown.]

Mirali Lamoré:

On July 15th, 2017, I interviewed Richard Forester, who heads LPR, otherwise known as Liaison Public Relations.

scene description: [The view widens, revealing Richard Forester sitting in the other chair, wearing a loose shirt and drawstring pants with a leaf-patterned design in white and blue. His face is broad, with thick brows standing out prominently against his light brown skin. His hair is textured and worn in thin braids cascading down his neck. A chyron appears on the screen: Introducing Richard Forester (he/him) - Head of LPR.]

Mirali Lamoré (ML):

Thank you for taking the time to sit down with me, Richard.

Ricard Forester (RF):

action happening: [laughs nervously and shifts in the chair, the braids on his neck echoing his movements]

You're welcome. What do you want to ask me?

ML:

Since this is the first time I've had the opportunity to interview you, why don't we start by having you tell us about your role within the Liaisons?

RF:

I head up LPR, which stands for Liaisons Public Relations. We primarily handle media for the liaisons, such as creating video tutorials to help our new and existing residents navigate our society more easily. We will also serve as a supporting arm to the LCO Initiatives, helping whenever there is a need to connect with the public through various types of media.

[The scene dissolves into a still image of Mirali, wearing a brown, green and yellow plaid suit, sitting across from a woman with skin so dark that it reflects blue hues in the studio lighting, shining upon her short, curly hair. She wears a long dress with a square neckline and short sleeves, displaying a brightly colored light blue and yellow pattern of intertwining leaves. A chyron appears on the screen: Introducing Mika Phillips (she/her) - Head of NAHE Liaisons.]

Mirali Lamoré: [voice over]

My interview with Mika Phillips, Head of the NAHE Liaisons, was conducted on July 17, 2017.

scene description: [The still image becomes a video.]

ML:

Thank you for taking the time to sit down with me, Mika.

Mika Phillips (MP):

[nodding her head]

Well, I'm here; what would you like to know?

ML:

You and I have never spoken before, is this correct? Would you be so kind as to explain your position and why you were present when Alexandra gave the Estimate?

MP:

The Liaisons weren't on your radar until recently, so yes, this is our first time speaking. While my title remains the same, as NAHE Liaison Head, my responsibilities have changed since the Liaison conference. My former assistant, Blair Rondele, while she still reports to me, has taken over those responsibilities within the LCS, our Liaison Community Services organization. My primary oversight responsibilities are for NAHE's Liaison Community Outreach, commonly called LCO. Before she moved down, Alex asked me to arrange a meeting with a representative group of liaisons, which I attended. It's why I was present at the event you're interviewing me about.

[The scene changes again, and Mirali, wearing a pink and black pinstriped suit, sits across from an older man, short-statured and balding, with the top of his pale pink head surrounded by short gray hair. He is wearing a surface-appropriate gray suit made of wool. The chyron changes to: Introducing Gerold Philby (he/him), General Manager, Habitat Administration NAHE.]

Mirali Lamoré: [voice over]

I'm sure everyone in NAHE recognizes Gerold Philby, the general manager of their Habitat Administration. Our interview took place on July 14, 2017.

ML:

Thank you for sitting down with me, Gerold; I understand these past few weeks have been busy for you.

Gerold Philby (GP):

Oh, they have been! I've spent the last week catching up on my work. However, I don't regret it; the conference was productive, and I thoroughly enjoyed speaking with the other General Managers.

[The chyron changes to: Thoughts upon meeting Alexandra Hanlon - Gerold Philby.]

ML:

I'd like to start this interview by asking what you remember when you first met Alexandra Hanlon.

[Gerold leans forward, clasping his hands.]

GP:

I was one of those who interviewed her, you know; Effie asked for my help. I must say, my first impression wasn't much. She looked messy, and overall, her appearance didn't seem appropriate for the position she was interviewing for.

ML:

Oh? How so?

GP:

Well, just how she was dressed to begin with. It was casual, something a tourist might wear on the surface when exploring a theme park. I assure you, if it had been me attending such an important interview, I would have dressed much more professionally.

[Gerold relaxes back into his cushioned chair.]

Have you ever heard the expression, 'clothes make the man' or 'dress for the position you want'? My father taught me those lessons, and Alex clearly showed why one should follow such tried-and-true rules. But it was more than her clothing choices. It was her demeanor; she just didn't fit. ₍₂₎

ML:

What do you mean by "didn't fit"?

[Gerold sits up against the cushions and speaks slightly faster than his regular cadence.]

GP:

The Director of Habitat Liaisons has an important job. During my time here, I've found it essential to present myself as a person of authority. There should be respect for both the person and the position. Alex is decent-looking for her age, but she isn't striking or memorable. No woman can remain young or even beautiful throughout their life; I understand that, and while it may be different for a man, it's a fact in our lives, even here. So, if one could be considered mature, they would do well to carry themselves like Margaret Thatcher or Golda Meir. ₍₃₎

ML:

But other than that?

GP:

Other than what? My dear girl, did you think I had a say in the decision? Oh no, Effie was convinced this was the person they had been searching for. She just wanted me to ask a controversial question, which I did.

ML:

Would you mind sharing the question?

GP:

I will not. Recruitment interviews are private, as I'm sure you are aware.

[The chyron changes to: Thoughts upon meeting Alexandra Hanlon - Richard Forester]

ML:

Going back to the day you met Alexandra Hanlon, can you tell me what you remember?

RF:

What do I remember about that first day? It was an interesting day, that's for sure, and I'll probably remember certain parts for the rest of my life. To start with, I remember her.

action happening: [he sits back in his chair, eyes no longer focused on Mirali.]

Alexandra Hanlon, she sure made a splash that day. From the first minute I saw her, a line from a Terry Pratchett book came right to mind. "My family! My land! My world! My dreams! My brother! How dare you try to take these things because they are mine! I have a duty!" ₍₄₎

I mean, she just exuded that attitude, if you understand what I'm saying. Like if she decided you were worth something, she'd go to the ends of the earth for you. That was my first impression. I usually get a good sense of people, and most of the time, I can figure out who someone is fairly quickly.

[Richard pauses for a moment, then focuses back on Mirali.]

ML:

How did she look to you? What did you notice about her appearance?

RF:

Her looks—let's see. She's probably somewhere in her mid-forties, with dark brown hair pulled back into a ponytail and her eyes—oh man, most people would notice her eyes first. They're that vivid. I thought at first it was how her dark hair framed them, but her eyes are still the first thing I notice every time I'm around her.

[The chyron changes to: Thoughts upon meeting Alexandra Hanlon - Effie Tabir]

ML:

Let's start with what you remember about the day you met Alexandra Hanlon.

ET:

I conducted her interview, actually, along with Gerold Philby.

ML:

Could you share your impressions of her?

ET:

The results from our analysis were impressive for what had become an impossible-to-fill position. Once I met her, I was struck by her quiet and reserve, but I glimpsed a resolve in her hinting at an intangible requirement we were looking for.

ML:

What about her physical appearance?

ET:

What of it? You don't seriously expect me to comment on a person's physical appearance, do you? Especially in my position as a member of the Foundation Board.

[Effie pauses and takes a few deep breaths before continuing.]

In my assessment, initially and continuing, her outward appearance was and continues to be irrelevant.

[The chyron changes to: Thoughts upon meeting Alexandra Hanlon - Mika Philips]

ML:

I'd like to begin by asking what you remember about the day you first met Alexandra Hanlon.

MP:

I met her a few days after she accepted the Director of Habitat Liaisons position while she and her partner were down here on the tour. She wanted to understand the organization and our structure.

ML:

What were your impressions of her?

MP:

She was more interested in what I had to say than talking about herself. I found her focused on the job ahead.

ML:

Have you ever wondered why you weren't offered the position?

MP:

Oh, heck no! Managing the Liaisons in one habitat with just the storefronts has been challenging enough. Dealing with all twenty habitats and figuring out how to tackle the last mandate? I'm happy to leave that to someone else.

ML:

The last mandate?

MP:

For the liaisons to act as a conduit between the people of the habitats.

ML:

What does that mean?

MP:

Well, as Alex explains, that's what her meetings have been for. She's met with and listened to groups of liaisons in every habitat. She listens as we talk about issues we hadn't been able to help resolve and come up with ideas of what might help. She listened as we discussed issues we hadn't been able to help resolve and come up with ideas of what might help. She listened, and out of those meetings, the other Liaison Heads and I worked with her to create the LCO Initiatives.

ML:

Would you please explain the LCO Initiatives to our audience?

MP:

The Initiatives were the focus of the conference. The liaisons in the LCO coordinate and find those with the necessary expertise, skills, or even interest in specific subjects across habitats, then assemble them into working groups to tackle the initiatives.

Committees, our official name for the working groups, have different focuses; some are as basic as harmonizing our understanding of the Charter to a common foundational culture based on those values. Others are naturally shorter term, such as integrating those newly recruited into the habitat more easily and thoroughly than we have previously.

[The scene shows Mirali in the original tan and brown striped suit. The suit's vertical striping on the collar contrasts sharply with the horizontal striping along the coat's front. Behind them, the wall is filled with Richard Forester's image.]

Mirali Lamoré:

On the day in question, three of our participants met Alexandra earlier, well before the actual events of the Estimate took place. I asked each of them what happened during that time.

[The chyron changes to: Meeting Alexandra - Richard Forester]

ML:

I understand you met her earlier in the day.

RF:

Mika and I met her for breakfast that morning. We thought that since we would be working closely with her, it would be a good idea for all of us to get to know each other. I think it was her second full day, and she looked tired. Most people take a few weeks to acclimate before starting their jobs, but she just plunged in like there was no time to waste.

She had taken the time to try to fit in. Her clothes were made in the habitat; I remember that even if I don't recall the style or design. I remember appreciating the effort she made since shopping here is so different from shopping top-side.

I have to say, the lady was reserved. We began with some small talk and then got right down to business. After that, she and Mika left to attend the meeting with the Liaisons. Effie and I had plans to take her to lunch afterward and then escort her to our meeting.

[The chyron changes to: Meeting Alexandra - Gerold Philby]

ML:

On March 22nd, you met Alexandra earlier in the day, correct?

GP:

I did. I attended the meeting she had with the liaisons to make sure any questions regarding Habitat Administration and policies were answered correctly.

ML:

Can you tell me more about the meeting itself?

GP:

Well, really, the entire situation was odd. I had thought Alexandra would ask direct questions and seek specific answers. Instead, she turned it into a free-for-all.

ML:

A free-for-all?

GP:

There was no focus; everyone just began saying whatever popped into their heads. Alex didn't say anything; she just listened. I found it most disturbing.

ML:

And how was she dressed?

GP:

[pauses and furrows his brow while thinking, as he forces out an uncomfortable laugh]

Do you know, I can't remember. I was so busy focusing on the meeting and what happened afterward that I don't believe I paid much attention to how she dressed that day.

[Chyron changes to: Meeting Alexandra - Mika Phillips]

ML:

I'd like to move on to the day of the Estimate. I understand you met Alexandra in the morning before your meeting. Am I correct?

MP:

I did; I met with her and Richard Forester, who heads LPR, for breakfast that morning.

ML:

What did the three of you discuss?

MP:

We mostly spoke of how we would work together.

ML:

Can you tell me more about the liaison meeting itself? Was there anything odd about it or Alexandra?

MP:

Other than Gerold showing up without an invitation? No, there wasn't anything odd other than we had never had a meeting quite like that. I mean, Alex introduced herself, and then the floodgates opened.

ML:

What do you mean?

MP:

She asked everyone to speak openly and honestly about their experiences as residents and liaisons, what they felt the organization was doing right, and where they thought we could do better.

Receiving permission to speak openly seemed to do the trick. I don't think anyone cared about the original question or even if the Liaisons had jurisdiction. Every one of the liaisons at our meeting spoke up about something. People began discussing the possibility of teaching community ethical values based on the Charter, which led to questions about whether every habitat interpreted the Charter in the same way we did, given cultural differences. It just became this free-wheeling brainstorming session. It was a lot of fun; everyone was invigorated by it.

Everyone participated except for Gerold. He'd been pretty quiet for most of the meeting. He answered questions put to him but never spoke otherwise, which is very unlike him.

ML:

And what about Alexandra?

MP:

Did she strike me as odd in any way? Not really. The only difference I noticed was that when I met her previously, she asked very specific questions. It was a sharp contrast to this meeting, where most of her questions were very open-ended.

[The scene with Mika fades out, and Mirali appears, standing this time, their brown and tan suit fully on display. The waist is widely pleated so the horizontal strips match up across the entire girth, resulting in a voluminous leg whose outer boxy sides lined up perfectly along the sharp pleats.]

Mirali Lamoré:

And so our stage is set; two witnesses are already in the meeting room with Alexandra as the last two enter. Let's hear what each of them has to say before we view the event itself.

[Chyron Changes to: Setting the Stage - Effie Tabir]

ML:

Did you meet her earlier in the day before she gave the Estimate?

ET:

No, Richard Forester and I planned to take Alexandra to lunch before escorting her to our next meeting. We came in just as her earlier meeting was wrapping up.

ML:

What happened when you walked in?

ET:

Alexandra was speaking, and shortly after we arrived, she ended the meeting.

ML:

Did she notice you?

ET:

I don't believe so. She was seated with her back toward us.

ML:

What happened next?

ET:

Once the meeting ended, Mika and Alexandra noticed us and walked over. Gerold, who had also attended the meeting, began to leave, saw us, and instead joined our group. I was curious; I asked questions.

[Chyron Changes to: Setting the Stage - Gerold Philby]

ML:

What happened when your meeting ended?

GP:

Well, everyone began heading to the nearest doors. I started to follow when I noticed Mika and Alex walking to the other side of the room, where Effie Tabir was standing next to a man I was unfamiliar with but later came to know as Richard Forester.

By the time I reached the group, Effie was in the middle of asking Alex a question.

[Chyron Changes to: Setting the Stage - Richard Forester ]

ML:

What happened next?

RF:

I can only speak about what I observed when Effie and I came in to take her for lunch.

ML:

What happened when you walked into the room?

RF:

The meeting was still going on, and Alex asked a question. Once she got an answer, she spoke a bit, just thanking everyone, that sort of thing. The meeting broke up, and almost everyone left, except for Alex, Mika and Gerold. Effie asked Alex why she had just asked about a pandemic plan.

[Chyron Changes to: Setting the Stage - Mika Phillips]

ML:

What happened when your meeting ended?

MP:

Toward the end of the meeting, Richard and Effie walked into the room from the far door. Alex's back was to them; she was asking some questions. Most were to clarify something someone had said, but one of the questions had no relevance to anything discussed earlier. She asked if we had any plans for responding to a pandemic on the surface, especially regarding resident safety and recruitment.

Once the meeting ended, most people left pretty quickly. Alex and I noticed Richard and Effie, and we walked over. Gerold had been heading toward the other door, but he turned around and joined us instead.

[The image of Mika is paused on the screen]

Mirali Lamoré: [voice over]

This seems to be a perfect segue to the first clip of this never-before publicly released video.

[The video begins by showing a screen filled with four equal-sized images arranged in a square. The top left reveals a middle-aged woman of average height, neither stocky nor thin, with her brown hair pulled behind her head. She wears a purple tunic and pant set, matched in their design. A chyron on the screen identifies her as Alexandra Hanlon (she/her).

The image to the right of the first shows an overhead view of the room, a group of three people standing in front of Alexandra as one more walks toward them. Beyond the four is a circle of eight chairs; except for the five people, the room is empty.

The images on the bottom expose the four individuals in front of Alexandra. The left image displays a slim, tall, dark-skinned woman along with a chyron identification of Mika Phillips, she/her, standing next to a taller, lighter-skinned man with broad shoulders and textured, dark brown hair, worn in thin braids that cascade down his neck. He is identified as Richard Forester, he/him.

The final image on the right shows Alexandra standing across from the last two people. On one side, an older woman is holding a mobile interface. Her dark hair is arranged in a high bun at the crown of her head, tapering into a tail clasped tightly at regular intervals with silver rings. She is identified as Effie Tabir, she/her. Walking to stand next to her is a stocky, pale-skinned man of roughly the same age, whose bald head is surrounded by short gray hair. He is identified as Gerold Philby, he/him.]

Effie Tabir:

Alexandra, I'm curious. Why did you ask about a pandemic plan?

Alexandra Hanlon:

In our meeting earlier, Tessa mentioned how the habitats are about halfway to the optimal starting population to survive a generational lockdown. I began wondering how a pandemic would affect recruitment and relocation, especially if the world situation continues to escalate.

action happening: [Alexandra pauses, and the room is silent]

Alexandra Hanlon:

Actually, there's something more to it than my simply wondering.

[The top left image zooms in on Alexandra's face as she appears to look directly into the viewer.]

Effie, when I met you and Gerold the first time, you mentioned that one of the reasons I qualified for this job was my empathy, my ability to accurately assess the people around me, and my excellent instincts. While I'm not empathetic in the sense of actually feeling the same emotions as another person, I am highly empathic, which means I'm aware of the feelings of those around me. I also possess a strong intuitive sense.

They're separate abilities, but sometimes they work together in a way I can't really put into words. When it happens, I end up with realizations for which I have no other explanation. In this case, I'm not sure whether "feelings" or "experiences" is the better term, so forgive me if I use both interchangeably.

I experienced something that caused me to ask about the pandemic. What I felt seemed to reflect something terrible happening everywhere. It was different from the feelings I tend to associate with wars, and the only other highly improbable events coming to mind were an alien invasion or a pandemic. I focused on what we could control and wondered how to keep everyone down here safe and continue to meet population goals if something like a pandemic becomes part of our reality.

[Gerold Philby's reaction is captured in one of the bottom images. Initially startled, he quickly assumes a look of contempt. The other three stand silently and respectfully.]

Gerold Philby:

[speaking in a scornful tone]

So you're telling us you can see into the future?

scene description: [The video stills on the last image, Gerold Philby's contemptuous look frozen in time.]

Mirali Lamoré: [voice over]

After we played it for our witnesses, we asked them what they thought while the event was happening. Here's what they had to say.

[A still image of the interview with Gerold Philby shows on the screen with the chyron showing: Thoughts on Alexandra's answer - Gerold Philby. The still image becomes the interview.]

ML:

I'm probably going to ask you this every time, but could you describe what you were thinking when this happened?

GP:

I was astounded she would even begin to claim something like this to people like Effie and myself.

[Chyron shows: Thoughts on Alexandra's answer - Mika Phillips]

MP:

[laughs nervously]

What was I thinking at that point? I began to wonder if she was the right person for this position. I mean, that stuff sounds pretty crazy, right? Who just says, 'I can predict the future' and expects to be taken seriously? I was pretty skeptical.

[Chyron shows: Thoughts on Alexandra's answer - Richard Forester]

RF:

I didn't think about it at that moment, at least until Philby made his comment. My work is all about media and public relations; that policy stuff is way out of my league. I'll tell you this, though: I haven't been fond of Philby since we moved here, and nothing he's done has shifted my opinion. I think he's a passive-aggressive bully who uses his position to get away with it.

I have to give her credit; Alex has handled him pretty well over the last few months.

action happening: [gives a short laugh.]

She's made a believer out of me.

[Chyron shows: Thoughts on Alexandra's answer - Effie Tabir]

ML:

I'd like to know what you were thinking as these events were happening

ET:

Whatever I thought about her answer was irrelevant. The recording shows what happened.

scene description: [Mirali is once again shown sitting in the chair against the white wall as they continue their narration.]

Mirali Lamoré:

This brings us to the actual estimate itself. The moment when Alexandra Hanlon chose to put the needs of our society to the forefront to gain a glimpse into the future.

scene description: [The video begins again, with the bottom right view showing Alexandra turning her attention to Gerold; she remains calm and collected as she answers.]

Alexandra Hanlon:

I'm not a seer or a prognosticator, and I can't tell you exactly what will happen in the future.

action happening: [She pauses, and the room is still.]

But maybe I can give us a general idea of when, even if we don't know the actual what.

[The overhead view shows Alexandra Hanlon taking a few steps back as the bottom images adjust to keep everyone in range.]

action happening: [Alexandra faces the group, standing easily, with her arms loose and hands open at her sides, her palms facing the people standing opposite her. She closes her eyes and stands silently, her chest rising and falling as she takes deep breaths. Her eyes open, and her face relaxes; her mouth is slightly parted. Everyone stands still, eyes focused on her, waiting.]

Alexandra Hanlon:

2017

action happening: [She pauses, and everyone waits.]

2018

action happening: [She counts slowly, pausing significantly between each year. Gerold Philby seems about to speak but is silenced by a look from Effie Tabir.]

2019

action happening: [Her mouth closes as her lips tighten and her fingers move toward her palms. The room is silent except for the sound of Alexandra's breath.]

2020

action happening: [Her hands tighten into fists, her breathing is audible, and her face tightens as the muscles in her neck begin to jump. Richard Forester seems to stiffen slightly but otherwise makes no move.]

2021

action happening: [Her legs and arms begin to tremble and shake; her fists are now tightly clenched, and her elbows bend as her arms rise toward her shoulders. Her breathing is labored and heavy. The images show the others in the room shifting slightly, moving in discomfort.]

2022

action happening: [Alexandra doubles over, and her entire body trembles visibly. Mika Phillips tenses; Effie looks concerned.]

2023

action happening: [She struggles to rise, her nails digging into the palms of her hands.]

2024

action happening: [Alexandra continues to rise and almost manages to stand completely upright. Suddenly screaming in anguish, she begins vomiting as she collapses onto the floor. Richard rushes to her, pulling her onto a clean section before allowing her to rest on the floor. He positions her so that she lies on her side, with her leg straight under her and the other leg bent, allowing her hips to be rotated and her knee to support the rest. He makes sure her lower arm is set straight from her shoulder and curves her other arm over it, with her hand close to her cheek and her head tilted back.]

[The overhead image captures Mika and Gerold leaving the room as the scene dissolves into Gerold Philby being interviewed as the chyron shows: The Estimate - Gerold Philby]

GP:

I could see physical changes come upon her. At first, I wasn't sure if it was part of an act. But I don't believe projectile vomiting and simultaneous fainting can be successfully faked, not at close quarters, at any rate.

Richard managed to get to Alex and eased her onto the ground. He was much better suited to it than I was. Mika and I went to find supplies. I brought back water.

[Chyron shows: The Estimate - Effie Tabir]

ET:

She was obviously experiencing far more than can be seen in the video. It was quite shocking when she became unwell and fainted. I was relieved that Richard reached her before her head hit

ML:

And what did you do?

ET:

Once Richard caught Alexandra, Mika and Gerold ran out of the room. They returned with supplies around the same time Alexandra regained consciousness. I continued recording. I hoped there would be more information. I wanted her to help make sense of what had just happened and tell us whatever she could.

[Chyron shows: The Estimate - Mika Phillips]

MP:

Everything seemed fine until she reached 2020; that's when I started feeling waves of tension coming from her. By the time she mentioned 2024, the waves were intense. And in the instance before she fainted, it all disappeared; in fact, I couldn't feel anything from her. It felt like being in a room with someone who had died, even though I knew she was alive.

Once she began to fall, Richard grabbed her before she hit the floor. Gerold and I ran out of the room, and he said something about water, so I found a supply closet and grabbed some towels. By the time I returned to the room, Alex was just starting to come out of her faint. Richard had moved her away from the worst of the vomit on the floor, but she had globs of it all over her. I was pretty sure her clothes were ruined.

ML:

Did you have any idea what it meant at the time?

MP:

I couldn't begin to think about it. All I knew was what I felt coming from Alex that day was more than I'd ever felt from her before or after. She's not exactly expressive, if you know what I mean.

[Mirali laughs]

[Chyron shows: The Estimate - Richard Forester]

RF:

Oh man, watching that again is tough. What can I say? I felt like I was almost in a trance. I could feel she was in pain, but when she started fainting, there was nothing; it was like a complete and empty void. When I saw her start to fall, some of my old first-aid training kicked in, and I managed to grab her before her head hit the floor and dragged her away from the pool of vomit before getting her into a recovery position. ₍₅₎

After I got Alex situated, I looked around and noticed Effie was alone, aiming her mobile at us, recording the whole thing. Gerold and Mika were nowhere to be seen. By the time Alex started stirring, they were both back. Gerold had a glass of water, and Mika was carrying some towels.

The problem was that I knew what I saw and knew it was real, but I had no way of interpreting it, you know? I don't think any of us did. All we had to go on was what we saw with our eyes. But we had no idea what any of it meant.

scene description: [Richard's face fades from the screen to be replaced with that of Mirali, standing again, hands in their pockets, pulling the coat away to reveal the dark berry shirt previously hidden, a stark contrast against the predominately tan surface of the suit.]

Mirali Lamoré:

While the footage so far reveals the actions making up the Estimate, there is more to learn. In this clip, we'll hear Alexandra explain her experience.

scene description: [The video returns to view as Mika and Gerold re-enter the room with towels and water as Alexandra begins to regain consciousness.]

Richard Forester:

[in evident relief]

She's coming around.

action happening: [Alexandra begins to sit up with Richard's help. She takes the offered glass of water from Gerold and sips it slowly. She hands the empty glass back to Gerold and accepts a towel from Mika after looking down at her vomit-riddled clothing. She carefully wipes her face and hands with the towel, then, still holding it, looks up at the four standing over her, all with looks of concern on their faces.]

Effie Tabir:

Alexandra, are you all right?

Mika Phillips:

How could she be all right? If Richard hadn't gotten there in time, she would have cracked her head on the floor! Alex, can you stand? I'm going to call Medical.

action happening: [Alexandra, with Richard's assistance, slowly rises and then stands on her own.]

Alexandra Hanlon:

I'm fine, Mika, just a bit shaky, and all I really want is to go home and shower. I don't need to go to Medical, and if anything develops later, Kevin is a member of our floor's medical triage; he'll take care of me.

scene description: [The top left image zooms in until only Alexandra's flushed and serious face shows, hiding her bedraggled figure.]

But before anything else, I need to share what I felt. From what I can tell, 2020 and 2021 reflected the same experiences I had earlier when I asked how a pandemic might affect us. While the experience could begin in late 2019, I'm certain it will be there in early 2020.

action happening: [Alexandra's head and shoulders shudder as she sighs]

As I was counting, I felt a push urging me to go further, so I continued. As I spoke of 2022, those earlier experiences persisted but were muted by an overlay of feelings I associate with war. Everything continued throughout 2023 and into the last year, 2024, and the feelings corresponding to war kept escalating.

action happening: [She trembles again and takes a moment to breathe.]

I can't describe what happened to me in that moment other than I experienced the worst pain in my entire life. I felt as if I was being turned inside out and then torn into shreds. It's like nothing I've ever gone through, and I hope never to feel anything like it ever again.

action happening: [Alexandra pauses and visibly shudders.]

I'm not saying anything will happen. As I said earlier, I can't predict the future; no one can. I can only tell you what I experienced and my interpretations, vague as they are. Having said that, if I were inclined to bet on timing and outcomes, which I am not, I'd put money on the possibility of something happening sometime around the last quarter of 2024.

scene description: [The scene freezes on Alexandra's disheveled face and then dissolves to the interview with Effie Tabir.]

[The chyron shows: Thoughts on the Estimate - Effie Tabir ]

ML:

What happened after that?

ET:

Mika and Gerold took Alexandra back to her house. Richard and I briefly discussed what had happened and agreed to postpone the afternoon meeting.

ML:

What did you think of her interpretation?

ET:

Whatever I thought at that moment had no bearing on my official actions and, as such, is irrelevant to this interview.

[Chyron shows: Thoughts on the Estimate - Richard Forester]

RF:

I didn't know what to think, even after hearing what she said. She was obviously shaky.

But I thought of something I hadn't noticed then, and watching the video just now confirmed it. She didn't predict anything; she just talked about how what she felt reflected something she had experienced before and her associations with it.

ML:

What happened after that?

RF:

After that? What do you think? There was no use in cleaning her up too much, and she insisted she was fine, just needed a shower. So Mika and Gerold saw her home, and I headed over to make calls and reschedule our afternoon meeting. I wasn't hungry anymore, but I did want to think about what had happened.

[Chyron shows: Thoughts on the Estimate - Mika Phillips]

MP:

Once she regained consciousness, I wanted her to go to Medical for a checkup, but she kept insisting she was fine and just needed a shower. Gerold and I ended up escorting her home. Gerold is usually fussy and hates any sort of messiness, but he was as gentle and thoughtful as he could be on the way.

ML:

What did you think of her interpretation?

MP:

I mean, it sounds ridiculous, doesn't it? Here's someone down here only a few days, and they're spouting off like Nostradamus? But thinking about what had been discussed during the meeting earlier, I wondered if we shouldn't start preparing in case something did happen. Plan for the worst, right? It works better than denying reality, and it's pretty obvious the trajectory of crazy on the surface just keeps escalating. ₍₆₎

[Chyron shows: Thoughts on the Estimate - Gerold Philby]

GP:

Mika and I took Alex back to her house. Luckily, she lives in the same quadrant as the office building, so we were able to escort her quickly. My protective instincts kicked in as I saw a woman in obvious distress. I knew we could never ask her to do anything like it again. I wouldn't want the pain she described and exhibited to happen to anyone.

ML:

What did you think of her interpretation?

GP:

I wasn't sure to begin with. It's incredible to think it was anything more than a charlatan's gasp for attention. But I pride myself on being able to read people, and I could tell it wasn't an act.

She believed everything she told us, whether it was true or not. The few times I'd met her and her husband, neither struck me as irrational. I highly doubt the PSTs would have missed something as obvious as having a flimsy grip on reality. There was something to what she had told us, and the city manager in me chose to rise to the occasion.

[The image of Gerold fades, and a still image of Mirali, wearing their pink and black pinstripe suit, seated across from Effie Tabir, appears in its place.]

Mirali Lamoré: [voice over]

I was especially interested in just how much of a secret the Estimate was. While we don't have a culture of lying here in the habitats, we are aware that some secrets are kept. My job as a journalist is to find and expose those secrets. I decided to ask who each of these people had spoken to in the days following in hopes of understanding how closely this incident had been held.

[The still image begins to move as the chyron shows: Discussions - Effie Tabir]

ML:

Did you discuss what happened with anyone else?

ET:

I updated the Foundation Board. They needed to know.

ML:

And dare I ask how the Foundation Board reacted?

ET:

[smiling]

After viewing the video and taking some time to get over its collective shock, the Foundation Board responded by considering the needs of all the Habitats and those living within. We agreed to begin working closely with every Habitat Administration and the Liaisons to speed up recruitment and integration as well as the receipt of outside materials.

[Chyron shows: Discussions - Gerold Philby]

GP:

I spoke with my assistant, Marcel Abitbol, and discussed its possible ramifications on habitat administration.

[Chyron shows: Discussions - Mika Phillips]

MP:

Over the next few days, I discussed it with three people: Richard Forester, who was also present; my mentor, Evelyn Schneider, who had been the Liaison Head before me; and my current assistant, Blair Rondele, who had also attended the earlier meeting.

ML:

Would you be willing to share any details of those conversations?

MP:

My conversation with Evelyn is privileged, and my conversation with Blair was about possible requirements for the Liaisons, given what had happened at the meeting earlier along with what I had witnessed.

I'll share what I discussed with Richard. I told him I believed she would be someone I could work with based on how she conducted herself during the earlier meeting. I also told him that even if the actual prediction, estimate or whatever you wanted to call it, never actually happened, I thought it was a good idea to have a pandemic plan, even if we never used it, and if her prediction came true, wouldn't it be smart to have everything ready? Richard told me his gut told him she was honest, and his impression of her didn't correlate with her being an attention-grabber.

[Chyron shows: Discussions - Richard Forester]

ML:

Did you discuss what happened with anyone?

RF:

I spoke with Effie and Mika. Effie and I spoke right after everyone else left, and Mika called me later. Effie made a good point; she told me Alex hadn't struck her as someone who thrived on drama and attention, and I agreed with her assessment. Mika told me about the earlier meeting and said she thought Alex was a good choice as head of NAHE Liaisons. She pointed out that many governments, including the United States, had pandemic plans. And she thought it made sense that we should, too, if only to make sure we keep anything from hitting us in the habitats. ₍₇₎

I remember agreeing with Mika when she said, "Even if it never happens, shouldn't we be prepared? Isn't that part of planning for the worst?"

Why had Alex done it, though? It wasn't to prove herself, that's for sure. No one had any idea she could do anything close to what she had done, not even Effie and I asked her. But when Mika quoted the Foundation mantra to me, the Pratchett quote I had mentioned earlier resurfaced; I felt like it wrapped around the whole moment.

scene description: [Mirali is shown, seated once again, coat spread enough to see the tan suspenders holding their brown pinstriped trousers up, almost hidden by the oversized jacket.]

Mirali Lamoré:

Allow me to summarize what you have heard. Four physical witnesses presented their first-hand knowledge in response to the video clips you have just seen. During this time, Alexandra Hanlon, the brand new Director of Habitat Liaisons, had an experience she describes as an overlaying of her empathic and intuitive selves, which could not be explained in a way our team or any expert we could call upon could grasp.

This ability, as we'll call it, resulted in noticeable physical discomfort as she went through the exercise, culminating in a fainting episode. As we all heard, she made two separate predictions. The first concerned what we now know as the COVID-19 pandemic, which has been spreading rapidly around the Earth's surface since its inception in December of last year. Which is approximately when Alexandra thought something might occur. It adds weight to her prediction of the timing of a future event and when it could affect us.

As we've heard, all three of our leading organizations have agreed to take the timing seriously and have taken steps to ensure that all the people and supplies we will need to survive will be safely in the habitats.

Alexandra herself has acknowledged that the pandemic has no bearing on the possibility of any other type of event. Still, those in positions of responsibility agree we will continue to follow the timelines set by the Estimate.

During our investigation, my team requested a copy of the keynote speech loaded onto the prompter at the conference, and we could find no mention of the Estimate. When asked, Alexandra refused to speak of it in a manner we journalists have come to loathe, but which she absolutely has the freedom to invoke. So we asked each of our witnesses.

scene description: [A still image of Mika Phillips being interviewed is shown as the chyron shows: The Keynote Speech - Mika Phillips]

ML:

My final question pertains to Alexandra's keynote speech. Why do you think she brought the Estimate up?

MP:

Why wouldn't she? It wasn't a secret within the Liaisons or with anyone else attending the conference. Oh, you mean because journalists were in the room? Believe it or not, Alexandra isn't particularly fond of keeping everything a secret, so if she chose to mention something in the keynote, she meant to share it.

ML:

It wasn't in the speech prompter.

MP:

I'll repeat, if Alexandra Hanlon says something, it's because she chooses to make it known.

[Chyron shows: The Keynote Speech - Gerold Philby]

GP:

She made it clear from the day she and her husband moved here that she intended to invite the Liaison leaders from every habitat to come and work together for a week. She had initially mentioned it for September of this year, hoping she would have a handle on her position by then. The entire conference was moved up by three months because of the Estimate. We had no time to waste.

ML:

No time to waste?

GP:

As mentioned in the video, we currently hold about half the number of people we believe would be optimal. To achieve our population goals, every habitat must bring down over fifty thousand people in the next eight years. We must also plan for at least part to be brought down under quarantine. Of course, we needed to start planning quickly. There's a lot to do and very little time to do it.

ML:

Mention of the Estimate wasn't in the speech prompter.

GP:

Wasn't it? Well, it was her keynote, and I'm sure there was a reason she mentioned it. I'm finding with Alex, she always seems to have a reason for what she does, even if I find it inexplicable.

[Chyron shows: The Keynote Speech - Effie Tabir]

ML:

My final question pertains to Alexandra's keynote speech. Why do you think she brought the Estimate up?

ET:

She is the Director of Habitat Liaisons; she gave the Estimate. Wouldn't you say it was her prerogative?

ML:

It wasn't in the speech prompter.

ET:

I had no advance knowledge of her address or what was or wasn't in the speech prompter.

[Chyron shows: The Keynote Speech - Richard Forester]

RF:

I have no idea why she brought it up, but I think a valid reason was what she stated.

ML:

It wasn't in the speech prompter.

RF:

I can't speak to her reasons for adding it into her speech; we haven't discussed it. But why wouldn't she bring it up in the keynote? It's why everyone scrambled to get the conference going in three months instead of six. There were discussions about it in the conference schedule. It wasn't a secret, so why are you trying to act like there was anything to hide?

[Mirali shifts in their chair]

scene description: [Richard's tense image is shadowed by the tan and brown-suited Mirali, gradually fading to be replaced by the visage of Alexandra Hanlon. She looks much the same as in the keynote video, if a little heavier, and her hair shows some gray strands among the brown. She's wearing a cream-colored open-work sweater over a thin blue shirt patterned with the Liaisons emblem in white. Her soft pants are in the same blue as the shirt.]

Mirali Lamoré: [voice over]:

Alexandra Hanlon agreed to sit down with me to discuss the Foundation's plans to keep this dangerous virus out of the habitats while maintaining recruitment levels. We did so three days before the release of this video.

scene description: [The image widens to see Mirali Lamoré, wearing a plaid suit in the colors of brown, green, and yellow, sitting across from Alexandra Hanlon.]

Mirali Lamoré (ML):

Thank you for agreeing to this interview, Alexandra.

Alexandra Hanlon (AH): [nodding her head]

Thank you for interviewing me, Mirali. I've admired your previous work.

ML:

Thank you. Could you tell us what has happened since the liaison conference ended? Where are we with recruitment, and how will this affect our current residents?

AH:

Liason Community Outreach has been the primary working arm coming out of the Liaison conference. During the two weeks of the conference, liaisons from every habitat collaborated to determine what and who were necessary for the Initiatives we initially agreed to concentrate on. Many of our initiatives are short-term, focusing on integrating newly recruited individuals and maintaining recruitment levels during a potential pandemic. Those attending the conference agreed that while nothing might come of either of my explanations, they at least provided a timeframe to follow. By the end of the conference, LCO members in each habitat began seeking out those with specific expertise or interest to participate in the initiatives.

Planning to bring down over fifty-three thousand people into each habitat in just under seven years has been a significant endeavor, made doubly so because of our commitment to bring down a majority before 2020. We opened the third residential floor in each section as soon as possible and asked everyone who needed to relocate to consider moving to the newly opened floors.

I'm pleased to report that we've welcomed almost two-thirds of our projected population, bringing in over seven hundred thousand new residents across all the habitats, for an average of thirty-seven thousand new residents each. While friendly neighbors continue to mentor newcomers, we have also offered classes through the Liaisons to help acclimate people to the culture of inclusivity we are working toward. As we begin recruiting during this pandemic, those classes have been virtualized and will be made available to every individual during their quarantine period.

Our target population still needs to grow by over three hundred thousand across all habitats over the next five years, which is approximately sixteen thousand more residents in every habitat. All efforts to bring anyone down from the surface were paused in early December of 2019, and our pause has continued as countries experiment with lockdowns on their population in attempts to stop the virus. As lockdowns have ceased, we've restarted our recruitment and are implementing quarantine procedures.

ML:

Could you please tell us about the plans for quarantine? Will it be safe for everyone living here?

AH:

Yes, everyone living in the habitats will be safe; it's the primary concern of everyone involved. Two floors have been built out within Section 14 as a quarantine village in every habitat. One floor will hold the residences, and the other will provide support services. Section 14 will become entirely self-sustaining, and no air will be shared between it and the occupied sections. Those who volunteer to work in the environment will always wear biological hazmat suits with separate air supplies. Volunteers will also undergo a decontamination process after every shift, as will our recruits, both upon entering quarantine and again once they have completed the requirements and are ready to join us in our livable sections. I am confident that none of the coronavirus will make it to the rest of the habitat.

ML:

And what about the people being brought in? Why can't they quarantine in the hotel?

AH:

Our current plan is to bring in fourteen to twenty people a day, which works out to over four hundred a month. None of our waypoints can support a population of that size for a thirty-day quarantine. We've built a residential floor in each quarantine village, which will confine each family to a domicile. They will not be allowed to leave their home for thirty days. If they become ill, we will have the resources and facilities on the same floor to treat them while keeping everyone else safe.

ML:

That's a long time to be confined. Our houses are comfortable sizes, but not to be able to step out of them? I'm not sure how happy I'd be.

AH:

You're right, Mirali. The houses in the village are larger than usual and provide an extra room equipped for physical exercise. There are therapists available to work with anyone who needs them for any reason, and we are also adding trained Liaison companions.

Each companion will be assigned up to three quarantined residents to provide social experiences and a friendly ear. Our experts agreed that the best way to acclimate and navigate a lengthy and sometimes solitary quarantine period is to provide a companion who can teach what is necessary or simply be there for conversations to relieve loneliness. They will recommend pre-recorded videos and virtual classes to attend, as well as other resources, and answer any questions. We hope to prepare these new residents for a comparatively seamless transition when they arrive in their new home section.

We plan to begin operating within our quarantine protocol and bring in our first recruits starting next week.

ML:

Where will these individuals be relocated once they've completed their quarantine?

AH:

From the beginning of habitat occupancy, only two residential floors were occupied in each section. The third was built out but slated to be used to hold residents when their original floors were being renovated. The Foundation Board authorized opening the third residential floor in each section, and of course, we opened Section 6 last year with its three residential floors. It's given us plenty of space to accommodate our new residents.

ML:

Are there plans to keep everyone in one section after they leave quarantine?

AH: [face going blank]

I will not tell you that.

ML: [recovering]

Is there anything else you wish to announce?

AH:

I can't think of anything I wish to add. Thank you, Mirali, for this interview and for preparing this documentary.

ML:

Thank you, Alexandra.

scene description: [The face of Mirali replaces the image of Alexandra and themselves.]

Mirali Lamoré:

And there you have it, folks, the video of the Estimate and the recollections of those present. Right now, above us on the surface, more than seven million coronavirus cases have been confirmed worldwide. Our recruiting efforts ceased before countries and municipalities locked down their communities, but our quarantine facilities will soon open as restrictions are lifted. We ask you to treat our newest residents with understanding and forbearance as they adjust to our way of life. Alexandra's estimate of the pandemic and our acceptance of the timetable means we'll be able to save as many people as the habitats can handle and do it safely.

Still, we need to keep in mind that the Estimate made two predictions, and we need to look to the next, reflecting on what it means, both to us and those on the surface. My team is already working on a new documentary discussing how we might react to the possibility of the wars Alexandra mentioned, where they might occur, and where they might lead.

Until then, thanks for watching. Feel free to share this documentary with your family and friends in the habitats. I'm Mirali Lamoré. Until next time.

scene description: [The screen again displays the words "In the Room Where it Happened: The Estimate" in white against a blue background, accompanied by a vocal version of "Prophecy" by Iron Maiden. The credits roll, and the video ends.]